Ledger / Prediction #918 · token · 6H

Will $EXSSIM still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "amYNbg6WVDLV7tPNkbCjbDDY8iKs65E3oLjpHzbpump",
    "name": "exs-sim",
    "symbol": "EXSSIM",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 95,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3088.958867744163,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 735,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T16:26:02.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3080.2423114821436,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3088.248506649827,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3088.958867744163,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6177.917735488326
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $EXSSIM would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,080, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $EXSSIM (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ee56d5b2f168928ae0594f45a5dafe42ec441acbe8065a0654c32fc2f13eb5b

Previous hash8232c4ba541e6313af6d02e9d68652387913ea615b42db157c581c9b953ea7d7