Ledger / Prediction #921 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (48 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": -0.05433936315076095,
      "diversity": -0.2806451612903226
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45102991376942986
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03930530164533821,
    "share60": 0.04150022192632046,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.9471106375074544,
    "diversity": 0.5161290322580645,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960405555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45102991376942986
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.203

Log loss0.600

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03700440528634361,
  "shareRatio": 0.9013556185053582,
  "totalAfter": 2270,
  "shareBefore": 0.04107773851590106,
  "totalBefore": 2264,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.11% → 3.70% (-10%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64a46fb420509d4f7b6148164189bb99a241019998028d63ce065e5ac80105a7

Previous hash0de31fb4337f13b5a93539b1060b52d720c8447396fc1db799095cba5fe5d166