Ledger / Prediction #922 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": -0.5906002025632471,
      "diversity": -0.2082352941176471
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33763451651902066
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.02102376599634369,
    "share60": 0.03794940079893475,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.553994675903653,
    "diversity": 0.5764705882352941,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960405555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33763451651902066
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.114

Log loss0.412

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02290748898678414,
  "shareRatio": 0.6124128021506872,
  "totalAfter": 2270,
  "shareBefore": 0.037544169611307424,
  "totalBefore": 2264,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.75% → 2.29% (-39%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3c006e9d5b9b000888ed5da85cfc1228c4be03bbf5eae352fef025d7e5db5989

Previous hash64a46fb420509d4f7b6148164189bb99a241019998028d63ce065e5ac80105a7