Ledger / Prediction #923 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.
Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": 0.4196110034022369,
"diversity": -0.7254545454545454
},
"rawProbability": 0.43876906295609003
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.037477148080438755,
"share60": 0.02463382157123835,
"total15": 546,
"total60": 2252,
"momentum": 1.5213696328870003,
"diversity": 0.14545454545454545,
"launches15": 20,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 312,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960405555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.43876906295609003
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.315
Log loss0.824
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03524229074889868,
"shareRatio": 1.4466183488640556,
"totalAfter": 2270,
"shareBefore": 0.02429328621908127,
"totalBefore": 2264,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 80,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 55
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 44% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.43% → 3.52% (+45%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.73 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
84df9f750cc6aadc07eeef952447ad299b6634e3c3179a06dfb901a3fd08c559Previous hash
3c006e9d5b9b000888ed5da85cfc1228c4be03bbf5eae352fef025d7e5db5989