Will "brain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "brain" (7 distinct creators, rank #191). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -1.2924810630919468,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.22408627036257875
},
"features": {
"term": "brain",
"rank60": 191,
"share15": 0.0009140767824497258,
"share60": 0.003328894806924101,
"total15": 546,
"total60": 2252,
"momentum": 0.2745886654478976,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 312,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960405555555556
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.22408627036257875
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.003964757709251102,
"shareRatio": 1.2633201232937032,
"totalAfter": 2270,
"shareBefore": 0.0030918727915194345,
"totalBefore": 2264,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Predicted 22% that "brain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.40% (+28%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "brain" (1H). momentum contributed -1.29 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "brain". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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