Ledger / Prediction #927 · narrative · 6H

Will "checks" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "checks" (10 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

Made2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -1.9966780798384771,
      "diversity": -0.6333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12894721888581842
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "checks",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.002742230347349177,
    "share60": 0.020195295162006213,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.1357856037929164,
    "diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993400925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12894721888581842
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.017

Log loss0.138

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003889285019770532,
  "shareRatio": 0.09092606555934284,
  "totalAfter": 15427,
  "shareBefore": 0.004591446305586259,
  "totalBefore": 11761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "checks" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.04% (-92%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "checks" (6H). momentum contributed -2.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash84fcb46aa4e0e30e4511f24cf54d3ce500fe71096bb5ff9a0d9b1ea0861739b2

Previous hash2c330db6f1d4cd5a44659d054e00fa871290f4a68388c527d86d42dc1df4f9b5