Will "checks" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2252 launches in the last hour referenced "checks" (10 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -1.9966780798384771,
      "diversity": -0.6333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18996865443007396
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "checks",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.002742230347349177,
    "share60": 0.020195295162006213,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2252,
    "momentum": 0.1357856037929164,
    "diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960405555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998350231481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18996865443007396
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006059789927282521,
  "shareRatio": 0.3449052417609547,
  "totalAfter": 44556,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017792502607521933,
  "totalBefore": 48897,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity