Ledger / Prediction #937 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

112 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (10 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4663591438291491,
      "momentum": -2.307352165943657,
      "diversity": -0.7928571428571428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05050537203302688
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0048638132295719845,
    "share60": 0.04887054735013032,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.0995244271508863,
    "diversity": 0.08928571428571429,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 112,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932580555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05050537203302688
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.052

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0076495132127955496,
  "shareRatio": 0.16155717761557178,
  "totalAfter": 2876,
  "shareBefore": 0.0482135170038743,
  "totalBefore": 2323,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.82% → 0.76% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -2.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash31f45b0cac90492cfbeded88bea2c40d4c4e4a91d75d8eae211fba01404dd780

Previous hash2e23fefba3b2cae9ec1425177905e9739f31dbf07ceaa233eca25a87f2a6311c