Ledger / Prediction #939 · narrative · 1H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (31 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.64×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -0.4465998252286504,
      "diversity": -0.07333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3798112444498142
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.01264591439688716,
    "share60": 0.019765421372719374,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.6397998888271262,
    "diversity": 0.6888888888888889,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932580555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3798112444498142
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.144

Log loss0.478

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007997218358831711,
  "shareRatio": 0.41720809604021286,
  "totalAfter": 2876,
  "shareBefore": 0.019371502367628066,
  "totalBefore": 2323,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.94% → 0.80% (-59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chain" (1H). momentum contributed -0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5c6ebc1d8add32cfe0d0e33805dd0c7b8ffcdbe070cd7734437cc03e7706dad5

Previous hashb9d6a5adc46cdaa17abc8af4937cb71aae0ad4aa9e7f226a8b2eba4def1c3be6