Ledger / Prediction #941 · narrative · 6H

Will "memory" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "memory" (9 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -1.8907137572373673,
      "diversity": -0.6545454545454544
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13548209587183646
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memory",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0029182879377431907,
    "share60": 0.019331016507384884,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.15096401871201853,
    "diversity": 0.20454545454545456,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988763425925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13548209587183646
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.146

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005152979066022544,
  "shareRatio": 0.0710011359244903,
  "totalAfter": 15525,
  "shareBefore": 0.007670103092783505,
  "totalBefore": 12125,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "memory" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.77% → 0.05% (-93%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "memory" (6H). momentum contributed -1.89 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash27719287312a6d93dc9da6248e730463f212f722d64f2699c91e04976527b928

Previous hash301d2d5adfdbb95a2456a4168afe74f1e2940a5e4d30816b92b832eac76fe959