Ledger / Prediction #944 · narrative · 6H

Will "open" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "open" (20 distinct creators, rank #57). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -0.26835159382233165,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4669768410777822
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "open",
    "rank60": 57,
    "share15": 0.006809338521400778,
    "share60": 0.008905299739357081,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.764638891525102,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988763425925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4669768410777822
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.218

Log loss0.629

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00605475040257649,
  "shareRatio": 0.7893655699840393,
  "totalAfter": 15525,
  "shareBefore": 0.007670103092783505,
  "totalBefore": 12125,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 94,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "open" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.77% → 0.61% (-21%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "open" (6H). momentum contributed -0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash075d9ae475fef96652d100c48fafa0679653e07de5f0f2280d0066f1b902106c

Previous hashb06975be4260bf5a434382f16b1ce131276ff32ae43671ee920d586df59d8535