Ledger / Prediction #945 · narrative · 24H

Will "memory" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2301 launches in the last hour referenced "memory" (9 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -1.8907137572373673,
      "diversity": -0.6545454545454544
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19630926690969192
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memory",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0029182879377431907,
    "share60": 0.019331016507384884,
    "total15": 513,
    "total60": 2301,
    "momentum": 0.15096401871201853,
    "diversity": 0.20454545454545456,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 336,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932580555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997190856481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19630926690969192
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.039

Log loss0.219

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004037322806387942,
  "shareRatio": 0.1869438017477102,
  "totalAfter": 44584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022094022339511476,
  "totalBefore": 48882,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 108
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "memory" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.22% → 0.04% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "memory" (24H). momentum contributed -1.89 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash21044a2ff6b5bc45aaa381caedc2d59996f07035d1647b9c3074448db445b2f2

Previous hash075d9ae475fef96652d100c48fafa0679653e07de5f0f2280d0066f1b902106c