Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2262 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (52 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -0.20587559052276133,
      "diversity": -0.1571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4403327758496552
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.030392156862745098,
    "share60": 0.03733981440565621,
    "total15": 509,
    "total60": 2262,
    "momentum": 0.8139343311289012,
    "diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985283333333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4403327758496552
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0329073482428115,
  "shareRatio": 0.8884187330739183,
  "totalAfter": 3130,
  "shareBefore": 0.03700440528634361,
  "totalBefore": 2270,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 103,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity