GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #956 · narrative · 1H

Will "meets" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2262 launches in the last hour referenced "meets" (6 distinct creators, rank #279). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.023698851121738793,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5127590006583789
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "meets",
    "rank60": 279,
    "share15": 0.0029411764705882353,
    "share60": 0.0028722934158197082,
    "total15": 509,
    "total60": 2262,
    "momentum": 1.0239819004524886,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985283333333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5127590006583789
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.263
Log loss0.719
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0019169329073482429,
  "shareRatio": 0.725327371446822,
  "totalAfter": 3130,
  "shareBefore": 0.0026431718061674008,
  "totalBefore": 2270,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "meets" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.19% (-27%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "meets" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4234e199c36c3673959adf3fa5934e792ce9a3c5341f526a4e2144b571a36417
Previous hash0d1833f7cd0517b462919aa666667e33758c3dec031a2ebef5192e9aa050c61a