Ledger / Prediction #956 · narrative · 1H
Will "meets" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2262 launches in the last hour referenced "meets" (6 distinct creators, rank #279). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.
Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.023698851121738793,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5127590006583789
},
"features": {
"term": "meets",
"rank60": 279,
"share15": 0.0029411764705882353,
"share60": 0.0028722934158197082,
"total15": 509,
"total60": 2262,
"momentum": 1.0239819004524886,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 346,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985283333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5127590006583789
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.263
Log loss0.719
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0019169329073482429,
"shareRatio": 0.725327371446822,
"totalAfter": 3130,
"shareBefore": 0.0026431718061674008,
"totalBefore": 2270,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 6
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "meets" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.19% (-27%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "meets" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4234e199c36c3673959adf3fa5934e792ce9a3c5341f526a4e2144b571a36417Previous hash
0d1833f7cd0517b462919aa666667e33758c3dec031a2ebef5192e9aa050c61a