Will "joe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2262 launches in the last hour referenced "joe" (31 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 0.14780154858930578,
      "diversity": -0.22363636363636366
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4746952959555974
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "joe",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.028431372549019607,
    "share60": 0.024524966858152895,
    "total15": 509,
    "total60": 2262,
    "momentum": 1.1592828122239887,
    "diversity": 0.5636363636363636,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997547222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4746952959555974
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017985611510791368,
  "shareRatio": 0.2280095444161427,
  "totalAfter": 15568,
  "shareBefore": 0.007989134776703682,
  "totalBefore": 12517,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity