Will $Cinder still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "memecoin". Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FvcRc7FDCgPXKRhXoaEqFaxF7ArvhgSxTrRj8bZApump",
    "name": "Cinder",
    "symbol": "Cinder",
    "hotTerms": [
      "memecoin"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 83,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3413.1846892757,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 424,
  "calibration": null
}

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T10:26:33.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3080.589453505044,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3513.5233053328207,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3413.1846892757,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6826.3693785514
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity