Ledger / Prediction #967 · token · 1H

Will $LABEL still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DjMYKj3rETx1MeoVA3S5DtatKpZ8p5AucDwJpB57pump",
    "name": "Label",
    "symbol": "LABEL",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 93,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 15146.324637751015,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 807,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 18:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T18:29:16.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3756.2305810931966,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 22298.461412906247,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 15146.324637751015,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 30292.64927550203
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $LABEL would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,756, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $LABEL (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash02def03312e9b2883695146373b57b3262ccb6582a5a176b1741bb95680399ff

Previous hash11a53e775d43d4b0e0b4964e4c3795f5a301f47d583449d88e7d4dc1690f4ec1