Ledger / Prediction #969 · narrative · 1H

Will "pair" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 83% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

725 of 2864 launches in the last hour referenced "pair" (721 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.26×.

Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.7465100613630861,
      "momentum": 0.8161295350037885,
      "diversity": 0.2933793103448276
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8257813495990367
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pair",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.5727344992050875,
    "share60": 0.2532286212914485,
    "total15": 1257,
    "total60": 2864,
    "momentum": 2.2617289320779816,
    "diversity": 0.9944827586206897,
    "launches15": 720,
    "launches60": 725,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 721
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965619444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8257813495990367
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.682

Log loss1.748

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030131826741996233,
  "shareRatio": 0.012690925659910488,
  "totalAfter": 2655,
  "shareBefore": 0.25208623087621695,
  "totalBefore": 2876,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 725
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 83% that "pair" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 25.21% → 0.30% (-99%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pair" (1H). momentum contributed +0.82 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "pair". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0dd6f7ff9d1182025fd288636d6b7db5b6b4da5d2cc47520be4b5e31ad501037

Previous hash40b90cc82c441c0be384d7f65734d366cf678a356d7e46d76ee58fbc394a59ba