Ledger / Prediction #971 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 34% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
64 of 2864 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (37 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.
Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3824167756388357,
"momentum": -0.5402596510067379,
"diversity": -0.20625
},
"rawProbability": 0.33982080406243287
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.013116057233704292,
"share60": 0.022513089005235604,
"total15": 1257,
"total60": 2864,
"momentum": 0.5825969608459348,
"diversity": 0.578125,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 64,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 293,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965619444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965619444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.33982080406243287
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.436
Log loss1.079
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04519774011299435,
"shareRatio": 1.992771659155707,
"totalAfter": 2655,
"shareBefore": 0.022600834492350487,
"totalBefore": 2876,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 120,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 65
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 34% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.26% → 4.52% (+100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.54 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
92db58b59145911873c691345e014676534d1e05c4519530f6eabcf616e2a89ePrevious hash
e1cbe6a7fcf428f156554ed19e03ca0490a7d9681dc6ef300327cb4425cb5528