GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #971 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2864 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (37 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.5402596510067379,
      "diversity": -0.20625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33982080406243287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.013116057233704292,
    "share60": 0.022513089005235604,
    "total15": 1257,
    "total60": 2864,
    "momentum": 0.5825969608459348,
    "diversity": 0.578125,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965619444444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33982080406243287
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.436
Log loss1.079
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.04519774011299435,
  "shareRatio": 1.992771659155707,
  "totalAfter": 2655,
  "shareBefore": 0.022600834492350487,
  "totalBefore": 2876,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 120,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.26% → 4.52% (+100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.54 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash92db58b59145911873c691345e014676534d1e05c4519530f6eabcf616e2a89e
Previous hashe1cbe6a7fcf428f156554ed19e03ca0490a7d9681dc6ef300327cb4425cb5528