Ledger / Prediction #976 · narrative · 6H

Will "bull" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 2864 launches in the last hour referenced "bull" (13 distinct creators, rank #26). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-10 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -1.4593371937880721,
      "diversity": -0.25000000000000006
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20885659743903573
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bull",
    "rank60": 26,
    "share15": 0.001987281399046105,
    "share60": 0.008551483420593368,
    "total15": 1257,
    "total60": 2864,
    "momentum": 0.23239025339865677,
    "diversity": 0.5416666666666666,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994269907407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20885659743903573
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.044

Log loss0.234

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003365643511039311,
  "shareRatio": 0.7176054766728905,
  "totalAfter": 14856,
  "shareBefore": 0.004699738903394256,
  "totalBefore": 13405,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "bull" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.34% (-28%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bull" (6H). momentum contributed -1.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0576eae643391ebeaf74cc29c3021c11acd93e9147499b84990a18de18c3655

Previous hasha9992c5feb62f28004677d148eabc562f59595d6f5d007b49ab7a856586f09ac