Ledger / Prediction #98 · narrative · 1H
Will "qseal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
63 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "qseal" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.98×.
Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3800545220936148,
"momentum": 1.0931651662479518,
"diversity": -0.8238095238095238
},
"rawProbability": 0.5864745380490305
},
"features": {
"term": "qseal",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.13581730769230768,
"share60": 0.04551971326164875,
"total15": 415,
"total60": 1394,
"momentum": 2.983703058752271,
"diversity": 0.06349206349206349,
"launches15": 56,
"launches60": 63,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 160,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999369444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5864745380490305
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.171
Log loss0.534
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.045512010113780026,
"shareRatio": 1.006138051442243,
"totalAfter": 1582,
"shareBefore": 0.04519368723098996,
"totalBefore": 1394,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 72,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "qseal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.52% → 4.55% (+1%). PARTIAL.
— "qseal" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ae54f699a26d614e76e7870fa285ecf94d4671b59749dab171fff48a7f084783Previous hash
b4b2bf341261aaff9824ecc01c3966c1e753ec812bae4264ff532a37723aec54