Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (48 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -0.26954610693305564,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41080828233194117
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.020777479892761394,
    "share60": 0.027205408886027044,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 0.7637260656439869,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.993515
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41080828233194117
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013198757763975156,
  "shareRatio": 0.4902545459496626,
  "totalAfter": 2576,
  "shareBefore": 0.027156549520766772,
  "totalBefore": 3130,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity