GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #988 · narrative · 1H

Will "data" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "data" (6 distinct creators, rank #247). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-10 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.1385839539566651,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2476405838566008
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "data",
    "rank60": 247,
    "share15": 0.0006702412868632708,
    "share60": 0.0020927237604636186,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 0.32027222107651065,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.993515
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2476405838566008
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 19:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.566
Log loss1.396
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002329192546583851,
  "shareRatio": 1.214978657353512,
  "totalAfter": 2576,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019169329073482429,
  "totalBefore": 3130,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "data" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.23% (+22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "data" (1H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "data". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6da9ca260eab47e1bc6c2bb02cd73316cae45f7978122a095792ba6c9eb5fef5
Previous hash14fc4d079436fa31bf13689f852a44308f2c07d6524d93ef8e336539da425440