Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (10 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": 0.20258997188275568,
      "diversity": -0.805511811023622
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40554899076143336
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05026809651474531,
    "share60": 0.04104958145524791,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 1.2245702570572463,
    "diversity": 0.07874015748031496,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989191666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40554899076143336
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03643416222206829,
  "shareRatio": 0.907208049106586,
  "totalAfter": 14437,
  "shareBefore": 0.04016323024054983,
  "totalBefore": 13968,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 526,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 561
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity