Will "joever" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "joever" (17 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.5751145967052527,
      "diversity": -0.5290909090909091
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30551645044120723
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "joever",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.010053619302949061,
    "share60": 0.017868641339343207,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 0.5626403883776537,
    "diversity": 0.3090909090909091,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989191666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30551645044120723
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00020779940430837432,
  "shareRatio": 0.043694283454504025,
  "totalAfter": 14437,
  "shareBefore": 0.005512600229095075,
  "totalBefore": 13968,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity