Ledger / Prediction #992 · narrative · 6H

Will "tool" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 3105 launches in the last hour referenced "tool" (5 distinct creators, rank #381). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-10 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.12708241937461073,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49973942341414784
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tool",
    "rank60": 381,
    "share15": 0.0020107238605898124,
    "share60": 0.0017707662588538314,
    "total15": 745,
    "total60": 3105,
    "momentum": 1.1355106019985377,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993515,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989191666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49973942341414784
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.250

Log loss0.693

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003463323405139572,
  "shareRatio": 0.394173297830314,
  "totalAfter": 14437,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009306987399770904,
  "totalBefore": 13968,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "tool" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.03% (-63%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "tool" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash752136755b95ab9f6ae7318da5b63240518a92ae3929e3035ac99b61a8b437a3

Previous hash7db16d81e884d3f32ff8c483bba5a4f63dc97a99400eade5fa47f0168e4daaa8