Prediction ledger
5,976 predictions. Each one is timestamped, hash-chained to the one before it, and refused any edit by the database. Outcomes are graded only after the horizon passes. Failures are never hidden.
| # | Target | Kind | P | Prediction | Made | Resolves | Status | Evidence / outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #53 | $SOOTS | token · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $SOOTS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $725, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #52 | "address" | narrative · 1H | 22% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 22% that "address" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.07% (-85%). CORRECT. |
| #51 | "power" | narrative · 1H | 16% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 16% that "power" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.01% → 0.82% (-59%). CORRECT. |
| #50 | "dog" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.71% (-18%). CORRECT. |
| #48 | $Breast | token · 6H | 9% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 9% that $Breast would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,087, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #47 | $Breast | token · 1H | 9% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 9% that $Breast would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,179, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #46 | $QCAT | token · 6H | 13% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 13% that $QCAT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,147, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #45 | $QCAT | token · 1H | 13% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 13% that $QCAT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,147, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #44 | "clanker" | narrative · 1H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that "clanker" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.34% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #43 | "market" | narrative · 1H | 29% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 29% that "market" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.26% → 2.06% (-37%). CORRECT. |
| #42 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 35% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 35% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.85% → 3.24% (-33%). CORRECT. |
| #41 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 12.87% → 9.73% (-24%). CORRECT. |
| #40 | $Alois | token · 6H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that $Alois would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #39 | $Alois | token · 1H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that $Alois would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #38 | $rivaly | token · 6H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that $rivaly would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #37 | $rivaly | token · 1H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that $rivaly would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #35 | "justice" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.40% (-90%). CORRECT. |
| #34 | "belgal" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "belgal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT. |
| #33 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 31% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 31% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.16% → 1.36% (-78%). CORRECT. |
| #32 | $MoaPow | token · 6H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $MoaPow would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,089, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #31 | $MoaPow | token · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $MoaPow would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,089, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #30 | $$1HODL | token · 6H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $$1HODL would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,159, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #29 | $$1HODL | token · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $$1HODL would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,159, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #24 | $IMINT | token · 6H | 11% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 11% that $IMINT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,086, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #23 | $IMINT | token · 1H | 11% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 11% that $IMINT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,086, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #22 | $FLINCH | token · 6H | 9% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 9% that $FLINCH would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #21 | $FLINCH | token · 1H | 9% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 9% that $FLINCH would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #20 | "misaligned" | narrative · 1H | 17% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 17% that "misaligned" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #16 | $XPOLOZ | token · 6H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $XPOLOZ would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,093, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #15 | $XPOLOZ | token · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that $XPOLOZ would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,093, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #14 | $AI | token · 6H | 4% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 4% that $AI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,090, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #13 | $AI | token · 1H | 4% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 4% that $AI would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,090, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #12 | "please" | narrative · 1H | 62% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 62% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 1.99% (+286%). CORRECT. |
| #10 | "larp" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "larp" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.14% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #9 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.21% → 2.55% (+15%). CORRECT. |
| #8 | $WEIRDCAT | token · 6H | 3% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 3% that $WEIRDCAT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $67, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #7 | $WEIRDCAT | token · 1H | 3% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 3% that $WEIRDCAT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $67, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #6 | $CHECK | token · 6H | 11% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 11% that $CHECK would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,083, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #5 | $CHECK | token · 1H | 11% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 11% that $CHECK would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,083, no recent trades). CORRECT. |
| #4 | "early" | narrative · 1H | 33% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 33% that "early" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.11% → 0.07% (-93%). CORRECT. |
| #1 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 59% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.02% → 14.12% (+41%). CORRECT. |